MUSINGS ON THE INNOVATION ECONOMY

As if early-stage companies didn’t have enough to contend with coming out of the COVID-induced hangover of the last two-plus years, the Trump administration’s 2025 reciprocal tariff regime and its abrupt pause have dropped a proverbial turd in the punchbowl. While hardware companies braced for part-deux of the 2018 Chinese tariff program, software stocks were hammered. And the market has yet to factor in the 2^nd and 3^rd order effects these tariffs unleashed. 

As we enter 2025, the venture capital landscape continues its reset, shaped by the transformative impact of artificial intelligence and the lessons learned from the market conditions of 2024. In this blog post, I examine the emerging trends and key takeaways that I believe will define the year ahead for both investors and startup founders.

In the fast-paced world of startups, a new era is upon us—a return to the "grinder" CEO. This is not the passive figurehead basking in the glory of on-camera media interviews, guided Ayahuasca trips and unicorn valuations - while letting teams handle the dirty work. No, this is the CEO who rolls up their sleeves, digs into the trenches, and hustles harder than anyone else on the team.

In the ongoing conversation about artificial intelligence, there's a prevailing narrative that AI will either replace humans or fundamentally change the nature of work and society. However, this perspective overlooks a crucial point: intelligence, in its purest and most valuable form, can never be truly artificial.

For managers just now looking to tap into the Middle East LP stream, the path is tricky. An increasing “in-region” focus has Middle East investors requiring that fund managers “give back” to the region. With institutions like PIF, Mubadala, QIA as well as family offices such as Olayan, DAMAC and others being inundated with opportunities, fund managers without existing relationships face an almost impossible battle obtaining introductory meetings, let alone getting mindshare or capital commitments.

The idea of an AI singularity has intrigued society for decades - painting a picture of a future where artificial intelligence surpasses that of humans and ushers in a new era of transformative technological advancements. And in the process, creating arguably one of the most powerful forces humanity has ever seen.

By its very nature, knowledge is contextual, and any one person’s or organization’s knowledge is limited to their level of involvement and interaction with other elements of their unique eco-system.

As early-stage investors (and former founders ourselves), we know first-hand how difficult it can be to launch a successful startup. Which is why we have always been keen supporters of the incubator or studio model as a means to help entrepreneurs think through some of the difficult questions that invariably get missed at the earliest, most formative stages of a company.